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State Predictions and Simulations
State Predictions and Simulations
Well, here's my predictions and game-by-game simulation for the state tournament (based on district scores, last year's state scores, and my own intuition).
Class 1:
Round 1:
Bell City 300, King City 150
TJ 330, Macon County 110
Hume 240, Lutheran KC 200
St. Joe Christian 320, North Shelby 150
Round 2:
St. Joe Christian 305, Bell City 270
TJ 320, King City 140
Hume 260, Macon County 140
Lutheran KC 220, North Shelby 210
Round 3:
Bell City 280, Lutheran KC 180
TJ 300, St. Joe Christian 280
Hume 250, King City 160
North Shelby 225, Macon County 160
After Pool Play:
(1) TJ 3-0, 950
(2) Hume 3-0, 750
(3) St. Joe Christian 2-1, 905
(4) Bell City 2-1, 850
(5) Lutheran KC 1-2, 600
(6) North Shelby 1-2, 585
(7) King City 0-3, 450
(8) Macon County 0-3, 410
Semis:
TJ 310, Bell City 260
St. Joe Christian 310, Hume 220
Third Place:
Bell City 275, Hume 225
Championship:
TJ 300, St. Joe Christian 280
Class 2:
Round 1:
Barstow 300, South Pemiscot 150
Richland 430, Purdy 130
Fordland 250, New Bloomfield 190
South Harrison 220, South Shelby 200
Round 2:
South Harrison 210, South Pemiscot 180
Richland 400, Barstow 250
Purdy 260, New Bloomfield 200
Fordland 250, South Shelby 180
Round 3:
Fordland 250, South Pemiscot 175
Richland 440, South Harrison 130
Barstow 280, New Bloomfield 180
Purdy 250, South Shelby 195
After Pool Play:
(1) Richland 3-0, 1270
(2) Fordland 3-0, 750
(3) Barstow 2-1, 830
(4) Purdy 2-1, 640
(5) South Harrison 2-1, 560
(6) South Shelby 0-3, 575
(7) New Bloomfield 0-3, 570
(8) South Pemiscot 0-3, 505
Semis:
Richland 430, Purdy 130
Barstow 260, Fordland 200
Third Place:
Fordland 230, Purdy 220
Championship:
Richland 400, Barstow 250
Class 3:
Round 1:
Notre Dame 290, Lexington 250
WCA 550, El Dorado Springs 125
Ava 250, Bowling Green 230
Savannah 525, Osage 150
Round 2:
Savannah 500, Notre Dame 200
WCA 450, Lexington 200
El Dorado Springs 240, Bowling Green 210
Ava 280, Osage 270
Round 3:
Notre Dame 310, Ava 260
Savannah 370, WCA 330
Lexington 275, Bowling Green 200
Osage 270, El Dorado Springs 260
After Pool Play:
(1) Savannah 3-0, 1395
(2) WCA 2-1, 1330
(3) Notre Dame 2-1, 800
(4) Ava 2-1, 790
(5) Lexington 1-2, 725
(6) Osage 1-2, 690
(7) El Dorado Springs 1-2, 625
(8) Bowling Green 0-3, 640
Semis:
Savannah 450, Ava 200
WCA 430, Notre Dame 210
Third Place:
Notre Dame 310, Ava 260
Championship:
Savannah 370, WCA 330
Class 4:
Round 1:
Jackson 230, Lee's Summit 200
Eureka 400, Nixa 200
Parkway Central 330, Helias 275
Liberty 360, Fort Zumwalt West 250
Round 2:
Liberty 350, Jackson 175
Eureka 410, Lee's Summit 180
Parkway Central 360, Nixa 220
Helias 300, Fort Zumwalt West 250
Round 3:
Helias 300, Jackson 200
Liberty 360, Eureka 340
Parkway Central 400, Lee's Summit 180
Fort Zumwalt West 300, Nixa 275
After Pool Play:
(1) Parkway Central 3-0, 1090
(2) Liberty 3-0, 1070
(3) Eureka 2-1, 1150
(4) Helias 2-1, 875
(5) Fort Zumwalt West 1-2, 800
(6) Jackson 1-2, 605
(7) Nixa 0-3, 695
(8) Lee's Summit 0-3, 560
Semis:
Parkway Central 330, Helias 275
Liberty 360, Eureka 340
Third Place:
Eureka 350, Helias 225
Championship:
Parkway Central 355, Liberty 345
There's my predictions and simulation. Enjoy and feel free to comment and make your own predictions and simulation!
Class 1:
Round 1:
Bell City 300, King City 150
TJ 330, Macon County 110
Hume 240, Lutheran KC 200
St. Joe Christian 320, North Shelby 150
Round 2:
St. Joe Christian 305, Bell City 270
TJ 320, King City 140
Hume 260, Macon County 140
Lutheran KC 220, North Shelby 210
Round 3:
Bell City 280, Lutheran KC 180
TJ 300, St. Joe Christian 280
Hume 250, King City 160
North Shelby 225, Macon County 160
After Pool Play:
(1) TJ 3-0, 950
(2) Hume 3-0, 750
(3) St. Joe Christian 2-1, 905
(4) Bell City 2-1, 850
(5) Lutheran KC 1-2, 600
(6) North Shelby 1-2, 585
(7) King City 0-3, 450
(8) Macon County 0-3, 410
Semis:
TJ 310, Bell City 260
St. Joe Christian 310, Hume 220
Third Place:
Bell City 275, Hume 225
Championship:
TJ 300, St. Joe Christian 280
Class 2:
Round 1:
Barstow 300, South Pemiscot 150
Richland 430, Purdy 130
Fordland 250, New Bloomfield 190
South Harrison 220, South Shelby 200
Round 2:
South Harrison 210, South Pemiscot 180
Richland 400, Barstow 250
Purdy 260, New Bloomfield 200
Fordland 250, South Shelby 180
Round 3:
Fordland 250, South Pemiscot 175
Richland 440, South Harrison 130
Barstow 280, New Bloomfield 180
Purdy 250, South Shelby 195
After Pool Play:
(1) Richland 3-0, 1270
(2) Fordland 3-0, 750
(3) Barstow 2-1, 830
(4) Purdy 2-1, 640
(5) South Harrison 2-1, 560
(6) South Shelby 0-3, 575
(7) New Bloomfield 0-3, 570
(8) South Pemiscot 0-3, 505
Semis:
Richland 430, Purdy 130
Barstow 260, Fordland 200
Third Place:
Fordland 230, Purdy 220
Championship:
Richland 400, Barstow 250
Class 3:
Round 1:
Notre Dame 290, Lexington 250
WCA 550, El Dorado Springs 125
Ava 250, Bowling Green 230
Savannah 525, Osage 150
Round 2:
Savannah 500, Notre Dame 200
WCA 450, Lexington 200
El Dorado Springs 240, Bowling Green 210
Ava 280, Osage 270
Round 3:
Notre Dame 310, Ava 260
Savannah 370, WCA 330
Lexington 275, Bowling Green 200
Osage 270, El Dorado Springs 260
After Pool Play:
(1) Savannah 3-0, 1395
(2) WCA 2-1, 1330
(3) Notre Dame 2-1, 800
(4) Ava 2-1, 790
(5) Lexington 1-2, 725
(6) Osage 1-2, 690
(7) El Dorado Springs 1-2, 625
(8) Bowling Green 0-3, 640
Semis:
Savannah 450, Ava 200
WCA 430, Notre Dame 210
Third Place:
Notre Dame 310, Ava 260
Championship:
Savannah 370, WCA 330
Class 4:
Round 1:
Jackson 230, Lee's Summit 200
Eureka 400, Nixa 200
Parkway Central 330, Helias 275
Liberty 360, Fort Zumwalt West 250
Round 2:
Liberty 350, Jackson 175
Eureka 410, Lee's Summit 180
Parkway Central 360, Nixa 220
Helias 300, Fort Zumwalt West 250
Round 3:
Helias 300, Jackson 200
Liberty 360, Eureka 340
Parkway Central 400, Lee's Summit 180
Fort Zumwalt West 300, Nixa 275
After Pool Play:
(1) Parkway Central 3-0, 1090
(2) Liberty 3-0, 1070
(3) Eureka 2-1, 1150
(4) Helias 2-1, 875
(5) Fort Zumwalt West 1-2, 800
(6) Jackson 1-2, 605
(7) Nixa 0-3, 695
(8) Lee's Summit 0-3, 560
Semis:
Parkway Central 330, Helias 275
Liberty 360, Eureka 340
Third Place:
Eureka 350, Helias 225
Championship:
Parkway Central 355, Liberty 345
There's my predictions and simulation. Enjoy and feel free to comment and make your own predictions and simulation!
State Predictions and Simulations
Those sound pretty accurate. No argument here. We really want to win, though.
State Predictions and Simulations
Well, of course everybody really wants to win.
State Predictions and Simulations
I know. but it is fate or study that separates teams from each other. There are winners and losers.
- DeckardCain
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State Predictions and Simulations
Sounds pretty accurate to me as well, although I highly doubt every rematch will result in an identical score.
State Predictions and Simulations
Well, of course rematches most likely won't have an identical score; it's just a simplification for simulation's sake.
State Predictions and Simulations
I doubt it too, but Jason is close on our numbers of points. I have no idea about the other teams. Savannah is awesome, 500+ points in a championship, teams wish for that kind of obliteration.
State Predictions and Simulations
Just for more clarification, I tried to make the simulation as accurate as practically possible, but I did do several shortcuts (such as repeating scores on rematches and frequent use of round numbers). I also repeated some score numbers, such as Fordland scoring 250 in each of their three prelim matches (which is quite unlikely to occur). If I was feeling really ambitious and had a lot of time, I would even include an estimated margin of error on each match.
State Predictions and Simulations
wow....predicting winners is one thing, but predicting scores...
State Predictions and Simulations
What!? I did the same thing last year!
State Predictions and Simulations
i almost want to buy you a hooker....mujason wrote: Well, here's my predictions and game-by-game simulation for the state tournament (based on district scores, last year's state scores, and my own intuition).
Class 1:
Round 1:
Bell City 300, King City 150
TJ 330, Macon County 110
Hume 240, Lutheran KC 200
St. Joe Christian 320, North Shelby 150
Round 2:
St. Joe Christian 305, Bell City 270
TJ 320, King City 140
Hume 260, Macon County 140
Lutheran KC 220, North Shelby 210
Round 3:
Bell City 280, Lutheran KC 180
TJ 300, St. Joe Christian 280
Hume 250, King City 160
North Shelby 225, Macon County 160
After Pool Play:
(1) TJ 3-0, 950
(2) Hume 3-0, 750
(3) St. Joe Christian 2-1, 905
(4) Bell City 2-1, 850
(5) Lutheran KC 1-2, 600
(6) North Shelby 1-2, 585
(7) King City 0-3, 450
(8) Macon County 0-3, 410
Semis:
TJ 310, Bell City 260
St. Joe Christian 310, Hume 220
Third Place:
Bell City 275, Hume 225
Championship:
TJ 300, St. Joe Christian 280
Class 2:
Round 1:
Barstow 300, South Pemiscot 150
Richland 430, Purdy 130
Fordland 250, New Bloomfield 190
South Harrison 220, South Shelby 200
Round 2:
South Harrison 210, South Pemiscot 180
Richland 400, Barstow 250
Purdy 260, New Bloomfield 200
Fordland 250, South Shelby 180
Round 3:
Fordland 250, South Pemiscot 175
Richland 440, South Harrison 130
Barstow 280, New Bloomfield 180
Purdy 250, South Shelby 195
After Pool Play:
(1) Richland 3-0, 1270
(2) Fordland 3-0, 750
(3) Barstow 2-1, 830
(4) Purdy 2-1, 640
(5) South Harrison 2-1, 560
(6) South Shelby 0-3, 575
(7) New Bloomfield 0-3, 570
(8) South Pemiscot 0-3, 505
Semis:
Richland 430, Purdy 130
Barstow 260, Fordland 200
Third Place:
Fordland 230, Purdy 220
Championship:
Richland 400, Barstow 250
Class 3:
Round 1:
Notre Dame 290, Lexington 250
WCA 550, El Dorado Springs 125
Ava 250, Bowling Green 230
Savannah 525, Osage 150
Round 2:
Savannah 500, Notre Dame 200
WCA 450, Lexington 200
El Dorado Springs 240, Bowling Green 210
Ava 280, Osage 270
Round 3:
Notre Dame 310, Ava 260
Savannah 370, WCA 330
Lexington 275, Bowling Green 200
Osage 270, El Dorado Springs 260
After Pool Play:
(1) Savannah 3-0, 1395
(2) WCA 2-1, 1330
(3) Notre Dame 2-1, 800
(4) Ava 2-1, 790
(5) Lexington 1-2, 725
(6) Osage 1-2, 690
(7) El Dorado Springs 1-2, 625
(8) Bowling Green 0-3, 640
Semis:
Savannah 450, Ava 200
WCA 430, Notre Dame 210
Third Place:
Notre Dame 310, Ava 260
Championship:
Savannah 370, WCA 330
Class 4:
Round 1:
Jackson 230, Lee's Summit 200
Eureka 400, Nixa 200
Parkway Central 330, Helias 275
Liberty 360, Fort Zumwalt West 250
Round 2:
Liberty 350, Jackson 175
Eureka 410, Lee's Summit 180
Parkway Central 360, Nixa 220
Helias 300, Fort Zumwalt West 250
Round 3:
Helias 300, Jackson 200
Liberty 360, Eureka 340
Parkway Central 400, Lee's Summit 180
Fort Zumwalt West 300, Nixa 275
After Pool Play:
(1) Parkway Central 3-0, 1090
(2) Liberty 3-0, 1070
(3) Eureka 2-1, 1150
(4) Helias 2-1, 875
(5) Fort Zumwalt West 1-2, 800
(6) Jackson 1-2, 605
(7) Nixa 0-3, 695
(8) Lee's Summit 0-3, 560
Semis:
Parkway Central 330, Helias 275
Liberty 360, Eureka 340
Third Place:
Eureka 350, Helias 225
Championship:
Parkway Central 355, Liberty 345
There's my predictions and simulation. Enjoy and feel free to comment and make your own predictions and simulation!
you really need something..
jesus..
what's wrong with you?
- Jeffrey Hill
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- Contact:
State Predictions and Simulations
He did it last year as well...JimmyL wrote: wow....predicting winners is one thing, but predicting scores...
State Predictions and Simulations
I wonder how close I was; I'll have to check that sometime.
- Jeffrey Hill
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State Predictions and Simulations
Well I know your Class 4 finals prediction was way off, as I don't think anybody would have predicted what happened. You had Liberty beating Eureka in the final, and Parkway beating Kirksville in the consolation.
- L-Town Expatriate
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State Predictions and Simulations
Come on, South Shelby is bound to win one game! And I wouldn't discount Lexington just yet.
But alas I must agree, Macon County has a really crappy road ahead of them. Reminds me of, uh, um, Highway 3 in the rain, which is in their school district.
But alas I must agree, Macon County has a really crappy road ahead of them. Reminds me of, uh, um, Highway 3 in the rain, which is in their school district.
State Predictions and Simulations
As for South Shelby, it looks like Purdy and Fordland are statistically better. The South Harrison game should be close, though. Also, South Shelby graduated both of their All-Staters (Colby Painter and Matt Hercules) from last year.
State Predictions and Simulations
Also, I haven't discounted Lexington. I just think they'll lose to WCA (like everybody but Savannah will) and they'll lose a close match to last year's third place team Notre Dame. (I agree with Kent that ND-Lex is a pivotal match.)
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State Predictions and Simulations
:snicker: remind me to check by here more often, geez.i almost want to buy you a hooker....
on saturday i made michael get me a balloon AND i got a cookie from andy's mom again.... AFTER we beat them.
it was sort of sad.
but dang that cookie was good.
<3 caitlin
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State Predictions and Simulations
Speaking of I will have tracy and Jim with me(matt, bryce and I can pick up our own women haha) Anyone want to volunteer for a date hahahahahahah if you would like a picture I have one of jim(well hotornot does, he is at a 9.1 i think)i almost want to buy you a hooker....
State Predictions and Simulations
Excuse me, but I'm the one who hasn't had a "date" since FOUR YEARS AGO THIS WEDNESDAY!!!
- Jeffrey Hill
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State Predictions and Simulations
flycaitiee69 wrote: i made michael get me a balloon
- L-Town Expatriate
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State Predictions and Simulations
Don't rub it in for the rest of us (minus myself) to make fun of you with.mujason wrote: Excuse me, but I'm the one who hasn't had a "date" since FOUR YEARS AGO THIS WEDNESDAY!!!
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State Predictions and Simulations
Got a quick question for almost anyone (especially the non-St. Louis people) who talks about WCA.
How can you predict "how we will do" though you have almost never seen us play? I would be surprised if you knew much about our roster, team record, strengths, etc. Not like I'll scout out my own team for your benefit, but I'd like to know how you can predict on the basis of numbers and "intuition" alone.
The word "scientific" does not seem to be the most appropriate to use when describing such analysis.
How can you predict "how we will do" though you have almost never seen us play? I would be surprised if you knew much about our roster, team record, strengths, etc. Not like I'll scout out my own team for your benefit, but I'd like to know how you can predict on the basis of numbers and "intuition" alone.
The word "scientific" does not seem to be the most appropriate to use when describing such analysis.
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State Predictions and Simulations
Forgive Jason he knows not what he does. I have faith in you guys george.
State Predictions and Simulations
Well, I know WCA kicks butt (although I'll stick by my pick of Savannah in a high-scoring squeaker). You're just ticked off I declined on Eapen's invitation to go drinking with him this weekend.
- DeckardCain
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State Predictions and Simulations
I would pay to see that.
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State Predictions and Simulations
would you really want to see jason drink?
- DeckardCain
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State Predictions and Simulations
Sure. It would bring new meaning to the expression "drinks like a fish"
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State Predictions and Simulations
You're a funny guy Bill. Thanks.East Buc & UMR wrote: Forgive Jason he knows not what he does. I have faith in you guys george.
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State Predictions and Simulations
Calm down my little fishy...I was curious, is all.mujason wrote: You're just ticked off I declined on Eapen's invitation to go drinking with him this weekend.
I note that you did not give a satisfactory answer, either. Please reply topically or just tell me what kind of divination you used (Ouija board, turomancy, etc.). That could also suffice, I guess since there is no other way by which we shall know how you make such claims...
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State Predictions and Simulations
thanks george, i do try
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State Predictions and Simulations
excuse me!!!
did you all miss that adorable photo of me?
...honestly.
<3 caitlin
did you all miss that adorable photo of me?
...honestly.
<3 caitlin
State Predictions and Simulations
Well, here's the method to my simulation and predictions.
Of course, I would have liked to have seen all the teams at state in person several times so I would have a better grasp of each team's abilities, strengths, and weaknesses, but that wasn't possible.
So, now to the method. I've tried to use statistics and science, but with a limited amount of info I was forced to use some educated estimates. My main source of info was the district finals scores, which was the only info I had for a sizable number of the teams. Of course, flaws in this system include not usually knowing the strength of the opposing team and whether the winning team was playing unusually well in that game or in a bit of a slump. I used the scores from last year's state tournament to set up a parameter as to how high-scoring to expect games and teams to be. I also had to use some dead reckoning, but I tried to be as accurate as possible. I also used some shortcuts, such as using the same score on rematches and making several scores nice and round (such as Fordland's scoring 250 points in each of their three prelim matches). I know this is only a rough attempt at predictive buzzermetrics, but it's the best (and possibly only) attempt I've seen on the board so far. Of course I would like to have more information on which to base my predictions, but these predictions are the best I can do with my limited info and my gut.
Of course, I would have liked to have seen all the teams at state in person several times so I would have a better grasp of each team's abilities, strengths, and weaknesses, but that wasn't possible.
So, now to the method. I've tried to use statistics and science, but with a limited amount of info I was forced to use some educated estimates. My main source of info was the district finals scores, which was the only info I had for a sizable number of the teams. Of course, flaws in this system include not usually knowing the strength of the opposing team and whether the winning team was playing unusually well in that game or in a bit of a slump. I used the scores from last year's state tournament to set up a parameter as to how high-scoring to expect games and teams to be. I also had to use some dead reckoning, but I tried to be as accurate as possible. I also used some shortcuts, such as using the same score on rematches and making several scores nice and round (such as Fordland's scoring 250 points in each of their three prelim matches). I know this is only a rough attempt at predictive buzzermetrics, but it's the best (and possibly only) attempt I've seen on the board so far. Of course I would like to have more information on which to base my predictions, but these predictions are the best I can do with my limited info and my gut.
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State Predictions and Simulations
Josh Chittum (south shelby) put up 15.6 TU/game at districts and I'm sure he's got some support.mujason wrote: As for South Shelby, it looks like Purdy and Fordland are statistically better. The South Harrison game should be close, though. Also, South Shelby graduated both of their All-Staters (Colby Painter and Matt Hercules) from last year.
- DeckardCain
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State Predictions and Simulations
Where did you get that info? Is it online somewhere?
State Predictions and Simulations
Nope. I saw it and I approve.flycaitiee69 wrote: did you all miss that adorable photo of me?
Since when does Taco Bell give out pink balloons??
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State Predictions and Simulations
since an incident occurred (which camp made me swear not to again mention), something along the lines of 'el capitano' calling me 'worthless' at MW, i don't know.... and i told him he could make it up to me by convincing the people at the counter to give me one of the decorative balloons they had.....Octoguy wrote: Since when does Taco Bell give out pink balloons??
'twas amazing.
thank-you.
State Predictions and Simulations
Ah, I see......maybe............but the people at the counter just gave it to him?
Also, methinks you forgot to add your <3 Caitlin signature (which I finally understand now. Give me a balloon or something!
)
Also, methinks you forgot to add your <3 Caitlin signature (which I finally understand now. Give me a balloon or something!
)
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State Predictions and Simulations
shut up, i have never had a date. quit crying.mujason wrote: Excuse me, but I'm the one who hasn't had a "date" since FOUR YEARS AGO THIS WEDNESDAY!!!
State Predictions and Simulations
Dang, I didnt know Josh was that good...
Anyway, I have to ask: Why TJ over us (SJC)? Not that I am trying to make my team out as super duper awesome or anything, I just want to know. TJ outscored us by 5 points in the district finals and the team they were playing put up fewer points than our opponent did (hence, they were not as good of a team?). Just wondering...
Anyway, I have to ask: Why TJ over us (SJC)? Not that I am trying to make my team out as super duper awesome or anything, I just want to know. TJ outscored us by 5 points in the district finals and the team they were playing put up fewer points than our opponent did (hence, they were not as good of a team?). Just wondering...
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State Predictions and Simulations
We did beat you guys two years ago at state. Granted, we have almost all new people now, but that might have played into his simulation.Trey wrote: Dang, I didnt know Josh was that good...
Anyway, I have to ask: Why TJ over us (SJC)? Not that I am trying to make my team out as super duper awesome or anything, I just want to know. TJ outscored us by 5 points in the district finals and the team they were playing put up fewer points than our opponent did (hence, they were not as good of a team?). Just wondering...
In any case, I get the feeling it's gonna come down to our two teams in the championship, barring anything unforseen. That should be a good game.
State Predictions and Simulations
Ya, I am sure it is going to be an awesome game. Or, more likely, two awesome games (since we play you round 3 in the morning). Like you said, two years ago is a long time; we both have new high scorers and such. I was just trying to get a grasp on the reasoning here. Anyway, see ya at state!
State Predictions and Simulations
This board has revolutionized Missouri quiz bowl. Two opposing teams are actually discussing their upcoming state match. Somehow I find that amazing, considering that when I played, the only communication between teams was a glare before the match. Wow.
State Predictions and Simulations
Well, I just think TJ will win. The Kinast machine has good stuff. But of course, almost anything can happen.
State Predictions and Simulations
upsets happen. especially to cocky teams.
State Predictions and Simulations
Melissa is right. In 2000, I didn't even know who we were playing at state (except I ran into one of the Diamond players [we beat Diamond in the district final that year] at FBLA State who told me we were playing Purdy in the first round). I didn't find out about the Richland dynasty or the Wehrman records until I got to state. This board is a great source of information, communication, and analysis.
State Predictions and Simulations
It is awesome what you can learn from this board.
State Predictions and Simulations
As for my predictions, I'm not trying to offend anybody; I'm just trying to make a reasonable guess as to what will happen. It's like an analyst picking the winner of a sports game. Someone picking the Pistons to win the East isn't trying to offend Shaq and the Heat and someone picking Phoenix to win the West isn't trying to offend Tim Duncan and the Spurs.
State Predictions and Simulations
I haven't seen anybody from Lexington yet on here ... then again, I doubt we'd be talking strategy or anything ... wouldn't want to give too much away.... not that we have too much strategy anyway.
State Predictions and Simulations
Well, Lexmo just joined and their coach posted once about a year ago.