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State Predictions and Simulations

Discussion of quizbowl topics not related to specific tournaments
mujason
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State Predictions and Simulations

Post by mujason »

Well, here's my predictions and game-by-game simulation for the state tournament (based on district scores, last year's state scores, and my own intuition).

Class 1:
Round 1:
Bell City 300, King City 150
TJ 330, Macon County 110
Hume 240, Lutheran KC 200
St. Joe Christian 320, North Shelby 150

Round 2:
St. Joe Christian 305, Bell City 270
TJ 320, King City 140
Hume 260, Macon County 140
Lutheran KC 220, North Shelby 210

Round 3:
Bell City 280, Lutheran KC 180
TJ 300, St. Joe Christian 280
Hume 250, King City 160
North Shelby 225, Macon County 160

After Pool Play:
(1) TJ 3-0, 950
(2) Hume 3-0, 750
(3) St. Joe Christian 2-1, 905
(4) Bell City 2-1, 850
(5) Lutheran KC 1-2, 600
(6) North Shelby 1-2, 585
(7) King City 0-3, 450
(8) Macon County 0-3, 410

Semis:
TJ 310, Bell City 260
St. Joe Christian 310, Hume 220

Third Place:
Bell City 275, Hume 225

Championship:
TJ 300, St. Joe Christian 280

Class 2:
Round 1:
Barstow 300, South Pemiscot 150
Richland 430, Purdy 130
Fordland 250, New Bloomfield 190
South Harrison 220, South Shelby 200

Round 2:
South Harrison 210, South Pemiscot 180
Richland 400, Barstow 250
Purdy 260, New Bloomfield 200
Fordland 250, South Shelby 180

Round 3:
Fordland 250, South Pemiscot 175
Richland 440, South Harrison 130
Barstow 280, New Bloomfield 180
Purdy 250, South Shelby 195

After Pool Play:
(1) Richland 3-0, 1270
(2) Fordland 3-0, 750
(3) Barstow 2-1, 830
(4) Purdy 2-1, 640
(5) South Harrison 2-1, 560
(6) South Shelby 0-3, 575
(7) New Bloomfield 0-3, 570
(8) South Pemiscot 0-3, 505

Semis:
Richland 430, Purdy 130
Barstow 260, Fordland 200

Third Place:
Fordland 230, Purdy 220

Championship:
Richland 400, Barstow 250

Class 3:
Round 1:
Notre Dame 290, Lexington 250
WCA 550, El Dorado Springs 125
Ava 250, Bowling Green 230
Savannah 525, Osage 150

Round 2:
Savannah 500, Notre Dame 200
WCA 450, Lexington 200
El Dorado Springs 240, Bowling Green 210
Ava 280, Osage 270

Round 3:
Notre Dame 310, Ava 260
Savannah 370, WCA 330
Lexington 275, Bowling Green 200
Osage 270, El Dorado Springs 260

After Pool Play:
(1) Savannah 3-0, 1395
(2) WCA 2-1, 1330
(3) Notre Dame 2-1, 800
(4) Ava 2-1, 790
(5) Lexington 1-2, 725
(6) Osage 1-2, 690
(7) El Dorado Springs 1-2, 625
(8) Bowling Green 0-3, 640

Semis:
Savannah 450, Ava 200
WCA 430, Notre Dame 210

Third Place:
Notre Dame 310, Ava 260

Championship:
Savannah 370, WCA 330

Class 4:
Round 1:
Jackson 230, Lee's Summit 200
Eureka 400, Nixa 200
Parkway Central 330, Helias 275
Liberty 360, Fort Zumwalt West 250

Round 2:
Liberty 350, Jackson 175
Eureka 410, Lee's Summit 180
Parkway Central 360, Nixa 220
Helias 300, Fort Zumwalt West 250

Round 3:
Helias 300, Jackson 200
Liberty 360, Eureka 340
Parkway Central 400, Lee's Summit 180
Fort Zumwalt West 300, Nixa 275

After Pool Play:
(1) Parkway Central 3-0, 1090
(2) Liberty 3-0, 1070
(3) Eureka 2-1, 1150
(4) Helias 2-1, 875
(5) Fort Zumwalt West 1-2, 800
(6) Jackson 1-2, 605
(7) Nixa 0-3, 695
(8) Lee's Summit 0-3, 560

Semis:
Parkway Central 330, Helias 275
Liberty 360, Eureka 340

Third Place:
Eureka 350, Helias 225

Championship:
Parkway Central 355, Liberty 345

There's my predictions and simulation. Enjoy and feel free to comment and make your own predictions and simulation!

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ajax
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Post by ajax »

Those sound pretty accurate. No argument here. We really want to win, though.

mujason
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Post by mujason »

Well, of course everybody really wants to win.

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ajax
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Post by ajax »

I know. but it is fate or study that separates teams from each other. There are winners and losers.

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DeckardCain
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Post by DeckardCain »

Sounds pretty accurate to me as well, although I highly doubt every rematch will result in an identical score.

mujason
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Post by mujason »

Well, of course rematches most likely won't have an identical score; it's just a simplification for simulation's sake.

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ajax
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Post by ajax »

I doubt it too, but Jason is close on our numbers of points. I have no idea about the other teams. Savannah is awesome, 500+ points in a championship, teams wish for that kind of obliteration.

mujason
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Post by mujason »

Just for more clarification, I tried to make the simulation as accurate as practically possible, but I did do several shortcuts (such as repeating scores on rematches and frequent use of round numbers). I also repeated some score numbers, such as Fordland scoring 250 in each of their three prelim matches (which is quite unlikely to occur). If I was feeling really ambitious and had a lot of time, I would even include an estimated margin of error on each match.

JimmyL
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Post by JimmyL »

wow....predicting winners is one thing, but predicting scores...

mujason
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Post by mujason »

What!? I did the same thing last year!

TruePirate

State Predictions and Simulations

Post by TruePirate »

mujason wrote: Well, here's my predictions and game-by-game simulation for the state tournament (based on district scores, last year's state scores, and my own intuition).

Class 1:
Round 1:
Bell City 300, King City 150
TJ 330, Macon County 110
Hume 240, Lutheran KC 200
St. Joe Christian 320, North Shelby 150

Round 2:
St. Joe Christian 305, Bell City 270
TJ 320, King City 140
Hume 260, Macon County 140
Lutheran KC 220, North Shelby 210

Round 3:
Bell City 280, Lutheran KC 180
TJ 300, St. Joe Christian 280
Hume 250, King City 160
North Shelby 225, Macon County 160

After Pool Play:
(1) TJ 3-0, 950
(2) Hume 3-0, 750
(3) St. Joe Christian 2-1, 905
(4) Bell City 2-1, 850
(5) Lutheran KC 1-2, 600
(6) North Shelby 1-2, 585
(7) King City 0-3, 450
(8) Macon County 0-3, 410

Semis:
TJ 310, Bell City 260
St. Joe Christian 310, Hume 220

Third Place:
Bell City 275, Hume 225

Championship:
TJ 300, St. Joe Christian 280

Class 2:
Round 1:
Barstow 300, South Pemiscot 150
Richland 430, Purdy 130
Fordland 250, New Bloomfield 190
South Harrison 220, South Shelby 200

Round 2:
South Harrison 210, South Pemiscot 180
Richland 400, Barstow 250
Purdy 260, New Bloomfield 200
Fordland 250, South Shelby 180

Round 3:
Fordland 250, South Pemiscot 175
Richland 440, South Harrison 130
Barstow 280, New Bloomfield 180
Purdy 250, South Shelby 195

After Pool Play:
(1) Richland 3-0, 1270
(2) Fordland 3-0, 750
(3) Barstow 2-1, 830
(4) Purdy 2-1, 640
(5) South Harrison 2-1, 560
(6) South Shelby 0-3, 575
(7) New Bloomfield 0-3, 570
(8) South Pemiscot 0-3, 505

Semis:
Richland 430, Purdy 130
Barstow 260, Fordland 200

Third Place:
Fordland 230, Purdy 220

Championship:
Richland 400, Barstow 250

Class 3:
Round 1:
Notre Dame 290, Lexington 250
WCA 550, El Dorado Springs 125
Ava 250, Bowling Green 230
Savannah 525, Osage 150

Round 2:
Savannah 500, Notre Dame 200
WCA 450, Lexington 200
El Dorado Springs 240, Bowling Green 210
Ava 280, Osage 270

Round 3:
Notre Dame 310, Ava 260
Savannah 370, WCA 330
Lexington 275, Bowling Green 200
Osage 270, El Dorado Springs 260

After Pool Play:
(1) Savannah 3-0, 1395
(2) WCA 2-1, 1330
(3) Notre Dame 2-1, 800
(4) Ava 2-1, 790
(5) Lexington 1-2, 725
(6) Osage 1-2, 690
(7) El Dorado Springs 1-2, 625
(8) Bowling Green 0-3, 640

Semis:
Savannah 450, Ava 200
WCA 430, Notre Dame 210

Third Place:
Notre Dame 310, Ava 260

Championship:
Savannah 370, WCA 330

Class 4:
Round 1:
Jackson 230, Lee's Summit 200
Eureka 400, Nixa 200
Parkway Central 330, Helias 275
Liberty 360, Fort Zumwalt West 250

Round 2:
Liberty 350, Jackson 175
Eureka 410, Lee's Summit 180
Parkway Central 360, Nixa 220
Helias 300, Fort Zumwalt West 250

Round 3:
Helias 300, Jackson 200
Liberty 360, Eureka 340
Parkway Central 400, Lee's Summit 180
Fort Zumwalt West 300, Nixa 275

After Pool Play:
(1) Parkway Central 3-0, 1090
(2) Liberty 3-0, 1070
(3) Eureka 2-1, 1150
(4) Helias 2-1, 875
(5) Fort Zumwalt West 1-2, 800
(6) Jackson 1-2, 605
(7) Nixa 0-3, 695
(8) Lee's Summit 0-3, 560

Semis:
Parkway Central 330, Helias 275
Liberty 360, Eureka 340

Third Place:
Eureka 350, Helias 225

Championship:
Parkway Central 355, Liberty 345

There's my predictions and simulation. Enjoy and feel free to comment and make your own predictions and simulation!
i almost want to buy you a hooker....

you really need something..

jesus..
what's wrong with you?

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Jeffrey Hill
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Post by Jeffrey Hill »

JimmyL wrote: wow....predicting winners is one thing, but predicting scores...
He did it last year as well...

mujason
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Post by mujason »

I wonder how close I was; I'll have to check that sometime.

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Jeffrey Hill
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Post by Jeffrey Hill »

Well I know your Class 4 finals prediction was way off, as I don't think anybody would have predicted what happened. You had Liberty beating Eureka in the final, and Parkway beating Kirksville in the consolation.

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L-Town Expatriate
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Post by L-Town Expatriate »

Come on, South Shelby is bound to win one game! And I wouldn't discount Lexington just yet.

But alas I must agree, Macon County has a really crappy road ahead of them. Reminds me of, uh, um, Highway 3 in the rain, which is in their school district.

mujason
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Post by mujason »

As for South Shelby, it looks like Purdy and Fordland are statistically better. The South Harrison game should be close, though. Also, South Shelby graduated both of their All-Staters (Colby Painter and Matt Hercules) from last year.

mujason
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Post by mujason »

Also, I haven't discounted Lexington. I just think they'll lose to WCA (like everybody but Savannah will) and they'll lose a close match to last year's third place team Notre Dame. (I agree with Kent that ND-Lex is a pivotal match.)

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Post by flycaitiee69 »

i almost want to buy you a hooker....
:snicker: remind me to check by here more often, geez.

on saturday i made michael get me a balloon AND i got a cookie from andy's mom again.... AFTER we beat them.

it was sort of sad.

but dang that cookie was good.

<3 caitlin

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Post by East Buc & UMR »

i almost want to buy you a hooker....
Speaking of I will have tracy and Jim with me(matt, bryce and I can pick up our own women haha) Anyone want to volunteer for a date hahahahahahah if you would like a picture I have one of jim(well hotornot does, he is at a 9.1 i think)

mujason
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Post by mujason »

Excuse me, but I'm the one who hasn't had a "date" since FOUR YEARS AGO THIS WEDNESDAY!!!

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Jeffrey Hill
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Post by Jeffrey Hill »

flycaitiee69 wrote: i made michael get me a balloon
Image

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Post by L-Town Expatriate »

mujason wrote: Excuse me, but I'm the one who hasn't had a "date" since FOUR YEARS AGO THIS WEDNESDAY!!!
Don't rub it in for the rest of us (minus myself) to make fun of you with.

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Post by Francesco Borromini »

Got a quick question for almost anyone (especially the non-St. Louis people) who talks about WCA.

How can you predict "how we will do" though you have almost never seen us play? I would be surprised if you knew much about our roster, team record, strengths, etc. Not like I'll scout out my own team for your benefit, but I'd like to know how you can predict on the basis of numbers and "intuition" alone.

The word "scientific" does not seem to be the most appropriate to use when describing such analysis.

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Post by East Buc & UMR »

Forgive Jason he knows not what he does. I have faith in you guys george.

mujason
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Post by mujason »

Well, I know WCA kicks butt (although I'll stick by my pick of Savannah in a high-scoring squeaker). You're just ticked off I declined on Eapen's invitation to go drinking with him this weekend.

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Post by DeckardCain »

I would pay to see that.

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Post by East Buc & UMR »

would you really want to see jason drink?

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DeckardCain
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Post by DeckardCain »

Sure. It would bring new meaning to the expression "drinks like a fish"

Francesco Borromini
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Post by Francesco Borromini »

East Buc & UMR wrote: Forgive Jason he knows not what he does.  I have faith in you guys george.
You're a funny guy Bill. Thanks.

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Post by Francesco Borromini »

mujason wrote: You're just ticked off I declined on Eapen's invitation to go drinking with him this weekend.
Calm down my little fishy...I was curious, is all.

I note that you did not give a satisfactory answer, either. Please reply topically or just tell me what kind of divination you used (Ouija board, turomancy, etc.). That could also suffice, I guess since there is no other way by which we shall know how you make such claims...

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Post by East Buc & UMR »

thanks george, i do try

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Post by flycaitiee69 »

excuse me!!!

did you all miss that adorable photo of me?

...honestly.

<3 caitlin

mujason
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Post by mujason »

Well, here's the method to my simulation and predictions.

Of course, I would have liked to have seen all the teams at state in person several times so I would have a better grasp of each team's abilities, strengths, and weaknesses, but that wasn't possible.

So, now to the method. I've tried to use statistics and science, but with a limited amount of info I was forced to use some educated estimates. My main source of info was the district finals scores, which was the only info I had for a sizable number of the teams. Of course, flaws in this system include not usually knowing the strength of the opposing team and whether the winning team was playing unusually well in that game or in a bit of a slump. I used the scores from last year's state tournament to set up a parameter as to how high-scoring to expect games and teams to be. I also had to use some dead reckoning, but I tried to be as accurate as possible. I also used some shortcuts, such as using the same score on rematches and making several scores nice and round (such as Fordland's scoring 250 points in each of their three prelim matches). I know this is only a rough attempt at predictive buzzermetrics, but it's the best (and possibly only) attempt I've seen on the board so far. Of course I would like to have more information on which to base my predictions, but these predictions are the best I can do with my limited info and my gut.

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Post by MoundCityBMW...T »

mujason wrote: As for South Shelby, it looks like Purdy and Fordland are statistically better. The South Harrison game should be close, though. Also, South Shelby graduated both of their All-Staters (Colby Painter and Matt Hercules) from last year.
Josh Chittum (south shelby) put up 15.6 TU/game at districts and I'm sure he's got some support.

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DeckardCain
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Post by DeckardCain »

Where did you get that info? Is it online somewhere?

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Post by Octoguy »

flycaitiee69 wrote: did you all miss that adorable photo of me?
Nope. I saw it and I approve.










:D

Since when does Taco Bell give out pink balloons??

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Post by flycaitiee69 »

Octoguy wrote: Since when does Taco Bell give out pink balloons??
since an incident occurred (which camp made me swear not to again mention), something along the lines of 'el capitano' calling me 'worthless' at MW, i don't know.... and i told him he could make it up to me by convincing the people at the counter to give me one of the decorative balloons they had.....

'twas amazing.

thank-you.

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Post by Octoguy »

Ah, I see......maybe............but the people at the counter just gave it to him?

Also, methinks you forgot to add your <3 Caitlin signature (which I finally understand now. Give me a balloon or something!









;) )

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Post by libertymark »

mujason wrote: Excuse me, but I'm the one who hasn't had a "date" since FOUR YEARS AGO THIS WEDNESDAY!!!
shut up, i have never had a date. quit crying.

Trey
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Post by Trey »

Dang, I didnt know Josh was that good...

Anyway, I have to ask: Why TJ over us (SJC)? Not that I am trying to make my team out as super duper awesome or anything, I just want to know. TJ outscored us by 5 points in the district finals and the team they were playing put up fewer points than our opponent did (hence, they were not as good of a team?). Just wondering...

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Post by Nate Kinast »

Trey wrote: Dang, I didnt know Josh was that good...

Anyway, I have to ask: Why TJ over us (SJC)? Not that I am trying to make my team out as super duper awesome or anything, I just want to know. TJ outscored us by 5 points in the district finals and the team they were playing put up fewer points than our opponent did (hence, they were not as good of a team?). Just wondering...
We did beat you guys two years ago at state. Granted, we have almost all new people now, but that might have played into his simulation.

In any case, I get the feeling it's gonna come down to our two teams in the championship, barring anything unforseen. That should be a good game.

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Post by Trey »

Ya, I am sure it is going to be an awesome game. Or, more likely, two awesome games (since we play you round 3 in the morning). Like you said, two years ago is a long time; we both have new high scorers and such. I was just trying to get a grasp on the reasoning here. Anyway, see ya at state!

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Post by MissCae »

This board has revolutionized Missouri quiz bowl. Two opposing teams are actually discussing their upcoming state match. Somehow I find that amazing, considering that when I played, the only communication between teams was a glare before the match. Wow.

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Post by mujason »

Well, I just think TJ will win. The Kinast machine has good stuff. But of course, almost anything can happen.

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Post by ajax »

upsets happen. especially to cocky teams.

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Post by mujason »

Melissa is right. In 2000, I didn't even know who we were playing at state (except I ran into one of the Diamond players [we beat Diamond in the district final that year] at FBLA State who told me we were playing Purdy in the first round). I didn't find out about the Richland dynasty or the Wehrman records until I got to state. This board is a great source of information, communication, and analysis.

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Post by ajax »

It is awesome what you can learn from this board.

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Post by mujason »

As for my predictions, I'm not trying to offend anybody; I'm just trying to make a reasonable guess as to what will happen. It's like an analyst picking the winner of a sports game. Someone picking the Pistons to win the East isn't trying to offend Shaq and the Heat and someone picking Phoenix to win the West isn't trying to offend Tim Duncan and the Spurs.

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Post by KentB »

I haven't seen anybody from Lexington yet on here :-( ... then again, I doubt we'd be talking strategy or anything ... wouldn't want to give too much away.... not that we have too much strategy anyway.

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Post by mujason »

Well, Lexmo just joined and their coach posted once about a year ago.

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