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Nationals predictions

Discussion of quizbowl topics not related to specific tournaments
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Charlie Dees
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Post by Charlie Dees »

What do you think Missouri teams at nationals are gonna do?
How do you think other teams from nationals are gonna do?
Who will win?

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Post by ecks »

Michigan teams will take the top 15 at HSNCT without a doubt. This is despite the fact that Michigan is not fielding 15 teams. This comes from a secret insider source from Michigan who asserts that anything less would be an "abomination".

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Charlie Dees
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Post by Charlie Dees »

Hey, Michigan seems "quite confident."
I expect Michigan to have a few good teams, but they were just ridiculous.

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Post by redliberte »

simply making it to the double elimination rounds would make me happy.

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Post by Byko »

I'll probably cross-post my predicted playoff teams over here that I'll be listing on hsquizbowl.org (that'll be coming next week), but at this point, I think all three Missouri teams are definitely contenders at the very least for playoff spots. It may be hard to do a full evaluation without having as much data (especially on Liberty and Savannah--feel free to send me some of your results if you like).

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Charlie Dees
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Post by Charlie Dees »

As best I can tell, here's Liberty's results:
Smithville tournament: 2nd to Savannah
Lee's Summit North (bad questions) tourn.: 2nd to Savannah
Truman tourn.: 3rd because of retarded championship determining format (They lost to Savannah when Staphanie wasn't there, beat NKC when Stephanie came back, and then beat Savannah. So the top 3 teams went 4-1, and Liberty had the 3rd highest ppg [I think because Stephanie wasn't there and they had a beastly schedule] so they got 3rd).
NKC tourn.: 2nd to Savannah
Wash U tourn.: 4th by losing to NKC then Clayton, but they were missing every A-team player except their captain, so they had much less depth here.
St. Jo Christian tourn.: 1st, over Savannah. Note that Stephanie wasn't there.
UMR-spring tourn.: handily 1st over Fort Zumwalt West.
Savannah tourn.: 2nd to NKC.
Lexington tourn.: 1st over NKC.
Suburban Conference - Big 7 division: 2nd to NKC
Class 4 Districts: (barely) 2nd to NKC.

As a memeber of the team that won districts by beating Liberty, then won state, I am darn sure that if Liberty had been allowed to advance to state they would have gotten 2nd or maybe won on a different day. They are one of the top 2 teams in the state.

My questions about Liberty's performance at Nationals are about the immensely different style and difficulty of the questions than most of the tournaments Liberty goes to. Of those, Wash U is most like NAQT nats and they only had one player there who is also going to nationals. Truman had decently pyramidal questions, I bet UMR-spring did, NKC's questions are pretty challenging too, if the scores indicate anything. However, I know Liberty knows stuff, so I would expect them to go 6-4 which would mean playoffs. Once the playoffs start in this difficult a field, though, it could just be crap shoots as to how far you make it.

Savannah's varsity results, according to their website, are -
Liberty: First over Smithville
(Missouri Western History Bowl: First)
UMR-fall: Third (lost badly to NKC in 1st pool, and to Ladue in playoff pool)
Smithville Tournament: First over Liberty
Lee's Summit North: First
Truman: Second to NKC (see above)
Truman State University: First (Smithville 2nd, but they both went undefeated and the champ was decided by ppg)
St. Joseph Christian: Second to Liberty
Midland Empire Conference: First
Marshall Tournament (awful questions): Grand Champion (defeated Smithville in small school division, then NKC in very oddly run grand championship)
Lexington Tournament: Lost badly to NKC in morning, and to Smithville in quarterfinals, so no rank.
Class 3 Districts: First over Smithville, after tiebreaker. Afterwards, I was told that Smithville lost because of an error on a math bonus and running out of time to protest.
Class 3 State Championships: Second to John Burroughs, but they beat John Burroughs in the morning, so I dunno who was really better.

Of those tournaments, UMR-Fall is the most pyramidal, but even then it's not at nationals difficulty quite as much as, say, Wash U or Vanderbilt. Of the three Missouri teams, I would say Savannah has the least chance of making the playoffs, although they very well might. The biggest setback for them that I see is that they are a team that knows a lot of ASCN-type knowledge, and they legitimately know stuff, but don't really play except maybe some in practice, on really challenging pyramidal questions. However, the still are good.

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redliberte
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Post by redliberte »

i can probably find some more data... scores, ppg for us and the like if it would be helpful.

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Post by Charlie Dees »

Well, it really won't be as helpful as you might think because of the differing formats and styles. i.e. you can't really compare a game from a NKC's tournament to a MSHSAA game. Same rule applies here I think.

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Post by Charlie Dees »

byko wrote:Okay, time to start some more debate.

Last year, 3/8 of the HSNCT field of 128 teams made it into the playoffs with 6-4 records. So, based on that same fraction, here are the 60 teams, based on some quantitative and qualitative analysis, that I am predicting will be in this year's playoffs (listed in alphabetical order):

Bloomington (IL)
Brindlee Mountain A (AL)
Brookwood A (GA)
Brookwood B (GA)
Central Gwinnett (GA)
Charter A (DE)
Chattahoochee (GA)
Cistercian (TX)
Danville (KY)
Detroit Catholic Central A (MI)
Detroit Catholic Central B (MI)
Dorman A (SC)
Dorman B (SC)
Dunbar A (KY)
Dunbar B (KY)
E.O. Smith A (CT)
East Lansing A (MI)
Eden Prairie A (MN)
Eden Prairie B (MN)
Garfield Heights (OH)
George Mason (VA)
Georgetown Day (DC)
Gonzaga (DC)
Governor's School A (VA)
Governor's School B (VA)
Hanover (NH)
Harrison A (IN)
Hunter (NY)
James Island (SC)
Lisgar (ON)
Livingston (NJ)
Madisonville-North Hopkins (KY)
Maine South (IL)
MLK Magnet (TN)
Moravian (PA)
New Trier (IL)
North Kansas City (MO)
Novi (MI)
Orono (MN)
Raleigh Charter (NC)
Richard Montgomery A (MD)
Richard Montgomery B (MD)
Rockford Auburn (IL)
Russell (KY)
Saint Anthony Village (MN)
Santa Monica (CA)
Shady Side (PA)
St. Ignatius (IL)
St. John's (TX)
St. Thomas (MN)
State College A (PA)
State College B (PA)
Stuyvesant A (NY)
Thomas Jefferson A (VA)
Thomas Jefferson B (VA)
Troy (MI)
Walnut Hills (OH)
Walt Whitman (MD)
Wayzata A (MN)
Wheaton North (IL)

Close behind and definitely within striking distance are these 20 teams:
Aiken (SC)
Arcadia A (CA)
Benton (AR)
Cave Spring (VA)
Champlain Valley Union (VT)
Charter B (DE)
Chaska (MN)
Cretin-Derham (MN)
Edmond Memorial (OK)
Eleanor Roosevelt (MD)
Greater Sioux Falls Home School Association (SD)
Hill-Murray (MN)
Minnetonka (MN)
Mound Westonka (MN)
Norcross (GA)
Parkview Arts and Sciences Magnet (AR)
Rancho Bernardo (CA)
Savannah (MO)
Simon Kenton (KY)
Wayzata B (MN)

Okay, fire away--I'll try to defend myself.

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Charlie Dees
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Post by Charlie Dees »

Countdown... we fly out tomorrow at 2:20 and are scrimmaging with Maggie Walker, Gonzaga, and TJHSST. I'm freaked.

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Post by ecks »

ashkenaziCD wrote: Countdown... we fly out tomorrow at 2:20 and are scrimmaging with Maggie Walker, Gonzaga, and TJHSST. I'm freaked.
Nice. I'd like to see those scrimmages.

PS - please write down all scores and as much infos as you can and then put them up here. kthx.

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Post by East Buc & UMR »

The correct way to end a post like that is

post pics kthxbye

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Post by ecks »

MOAR CATS PLSZZ

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Post by DeckardCain »

To get this thread back on track, I'll predict that all three MO teams will make the playoffs - Savannah at 6-4, Liberty at 7-3, and NKC at 8-2, possibly 9-1 with a favorable draw. I don't really have a clue who will win, but I'll pick Maggie Walker for the fun of it.

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Post by East Buc & UMR »

There is no such thing as a Favorable draw at Nationals.

It is power matched outside of the first game.

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Post by DeckardCain »

East Buc & UMR wrote: There is no such thing as a Favorable draw at Nationals.

It is power matched outside of the first game.
Double negative aside, this is true to an extent, although I doubt it can be argued that every team's schedule has exactly the same difficulty.

Nice edit, by the way.

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Post by East Buc & UMR »

If you win you play another team that won. Favorable doesn't have anything to do with it. Only way that would happen is if 4 sunday contenders were placed right next to each other so the losers of the first game play each other.

By round 6 or 7 they split it off even more. Reseeding and power matching again.

It is really effective and by round 8 slows everything down.

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Post by ecks »

East Buc & UMR wrote: Favorable doesn't have anything to do with it.
It would in the round-robin; having to play, say, TJ and then Maggie Walker and then Richard Montgomery and then State College would be less favorable than pretty much any other draw imaginable.

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Post by East Buc & UMR »

except unless those teams lose at the same time your school loses you wouldn't play teams like that until later on in the power matching.

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Post by DeckardCain »

I still find the notion that every team that finishes prelims with the same record has played a schedule of the exact same difficulty slightly absurd, but I'll take a closer look at it.

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Post by DeckardCain »

And good luck to the three MO teams, I can't wait to see the results.

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Post by Charlie Dees »

I generally agree with what Bill said, but my counterexample is Truman's tournament with Liberty's schedule all the way through the power matching (Savannah, Webb City, St. Jo Christian (?), NKC, Savannah) when compared to basically everyone elses. So random placement of teams can effect that stuff. However, if you have a certain record at NAQT you're probably at a similar level to everyone else with your record.

BTW, I would call 7-3 at the max for our record. 8-2 is what Richard Montgomery and State College went last year, which is not our level.

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Post by STPickrell »

Good luck to all MO teams, except when they are playing a VA team.

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Charlie Dees
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Post by Charlie Dees »

So these are our projected scrimmages -
Gonzaga College
Georgetown Day
Dunbar A
TJ A
Gov A

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Post by Charlie Dees »

We scrimmaged Georgetown and lost 295-300 when I negged a ton. ARGH!
We played Lyndon Johnson in a random assignment and won 5 or 6 hunnid-ish to 15.
We played 'zaga on college questions and were winning at tossup 20 but we decided to play through to 24 and lost on the last question, some hockey nonsense.
We played some Minessota school (who's coach was playing) and won 400 ish to 100 something.
We played MLWalker and lost 375-240 without their captain playing.

Not a great evening, but productive nonetheless. I know to control my negging.

Maggie Walker is monstrous, BTW.

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Post by Charlie Dees »

Today, if you are interested in following the tournament, go to naqt.com. THey may post recordings of games throughout, so maybe a Missouri team will get recorded.

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Post by ecks »

ashkenaziCD wrote: Today, if you are interested in following the tournament, go to naqt.com. THey may post recordings of games throughout, so maybe a Missouri team will get recorded.
I doubt it. Chad Kubicek doesn't do a very good job at keeping the NAQT site updated with statistics and results. He still doesn't have ICT stats from this year anywhere on the website other than the front page.

I did a better, quicker job of it when I was doing it for free for my high school website (and now college). Bah.

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Post by East Buc & UMR »

except Chad is reading today; the stat team of Bruce and Craig usually keep live stats

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Post by Charlie Dees »

Well, Craig was one of our moderators...

Anyway, results -
NKC 225 - Lincoln Cty (TN) 155
Pensacola (FL) 280 - NKC 230
NKC 405 - Richard Montgomery B (MD) 175
Shady Side (PA) 275 - NKC 255
NKC 555 - Benton (AK) 15
NKC 330 - Mound Westonka (MN) 115
NKC 240 - San Mateo (CA) 160
NKC 285 - Cave Spring (VA) 145
NKC 380 - Santa Monica (CA) 305
NKC 270 - Brookwood (GA) 145

We started out pretty badly. Neither of those losses should have happened. However, I think it balanced out because if we had won those games we would have instead legitimately lost a couple games to the likes of Maggie Walker and State College. The questions sets were uneven and funky at times, but decent. But I'm ultra pumped that we rebounded so well. And I bet I'm the neg champ. These games take a lot of adjustment, which I partially attribute to our losses. But 8-2 was unthinkable, I thought.

Other Missouri teams did not fare so well. Liberty was 4-6, and at the last I saw them Savannah was 3-4, So I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't make the playoffs. Any team that goes 6-4 or better makes the playoffs.

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Post by ecks »

That's awesome. Looks like you got some quality wins, especially against Santa Monica, RM B, and Westonka. Best of luck tomorrow.,

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Post by Charlie Dees »

Savannah went 5-5.

We're ranked 9th statistically. MLW is first, State College is second (both went 9-1), and other 8-2 teams are (not exactly in order) Richard Montgomery A, Martin Luther King A, New Trier, Eden Prairie A, Thomas Jefferson B, and Dorman A, so we're the bottom 8-2 team. I think we are clicking better, so I hope we can do OK.

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Post by KentB »

haha ... none of those teams are from Michigan :-P

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Post by DeckardCain »

KentB wrote: haha ... none of those teams are from Michigan :-P
That's because all the Michigan teams won 11 out of their 10 prelim games and were all declared co-champions without a playoff.

Good job, everyone - you showed you belong there. I wouldn't be suprised to see NKC make a run tomorrow. In other news, I found out today that the mirror of this tourney that UT-Chattanooga is holding coincides exactly with my return from vacation in Florida, and I'm contemplating playing in it solo.

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Post by S.C.Mitchell07 »

DeckardCain wrote:
KentB wrote: haha ... none of those teams are from Michigan :-P
That's because all the Michigan teams won 11 out of their 10 prelim games and were all declared co-champions without a playoff.

<snip>
"9 out of every 8 people have trouble with fractions - including DeckardCain" ?

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Post by KentB »

it is a reference to the hsqb forum where Michigan was scientifically determined to be the best state ever and were automatically handed the championship of the hsnct tourney.

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Post by DeckardCain »

Yeah, the Michigan teams are just that good. No fraction errors tonight on the part of the forum's resident math major.

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Post by Charlie Dees »

OMFG MICHIGAN IZZ TEH GREETESTS EVARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1111!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!6!

If Michigan doesn't get the ridiculous results they expected, I'm going to post "Shut down" in that thread.

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Post by East Buc & UMR »

North Kansas City 295, Ransom Everglades 80
North Kansas City 330, State College Area B 235
North Kansas City 270, Paul M. Dorman A 225
Maggie Walker Governor's School A 555, North Kansas City 135
Charter School of Wilmington A 305, North Kansas City 255

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Post by ecks »

Congrats to Chuq and NKC on a deep run in the tournament. Next year, take it all?










:)

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Post by Historyman »

Maggie Walker Governor's School A 555, North Kansas City 135

Holey crap, how can a team be that good, take them next year charles.

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Post by East Buc & UMR »

Maggie Walker Governor's School A 710, Raleigh Charter 30

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Post by ecks »

East Buc & UMR wrote: Maggie Walker Governor's School A 710, Raleigh Charter 30
Yeah. On NAQT question packet-length, too. That's just ridiculous.

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Post by KentB »

I will let Chuq explain it more later but it sounds like NKC got slightly hosed in the game against Wilmington Charter by unequal distribution and a vaguely worded . as one of the closing questions and from Chuq´s description, It is a shame that trash could end up deciding that game but NKC still did a great job.

Chuq finished with 33 negs ... which makes him the biggest negger. That along with being 2nd in scoring puts him right alongside his idol, Chris Ray.

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Post by S.C.Mitchell07 »

Heh, Chuq is gonna take this the wrong way but negging 33 times makes me proud.

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Post by Charlie Dees »

S.C.Mitchell07 wrote: Heh, Chuq is gonna take this the wrong way but negging 33 times makes me proud.
[things that could get me banned go here]

Yeah, it was a really neat weekend. It was really frustrating that we got punished like we did for doing well in the early playoffs because we beat Dorman who worked their way through the loser's bracket and ended up with 4th, and were then paired up against Maggie Walker who is simply a brick wall. They really are that good, and you can hear them in podcasts at http://www.fraughtmachine.com/hsnct07/, including the national championship against State College which Maggie Walker won 475-230.

As for our final loss, that was frustrating. I am not remotely convinced that Wilmington Charter A was as good as us, and all I will say is that they got trash which was enough for them to win, and that hose. But moderators, please delete answer references in Kent's post, as mirror's are still being held. Anyway, we still managed a 13th place trophy, but I really think we deserved either their 5th place or Dorman's trophy. But that strength of schedule isn't taken into account, so I can't do anything about it. I was tied for most negs, and I had the 2nd highest ppg.
PPG Leaders GP 15 10 -5 Pts PPG PP20H TU/neg
1. Dallas Simons, Martin Luther King Jr. Magnet A (TN) (Junior) 9.87 28 60 11 965 97.80 86.94 8.00
2. Charles Dees, North Kansas City (MO) (Junior) 9.78 28 68 33 935 95.60 83.86 2.91
So I was pretty close. However, Dallas's schedule was crazy hard so he is most impressive for managing the top scorer. All in all it was fun, and I hope we do better next year.

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Post by Charlie Dees »

I also want to make the point that Missouri's results at this tournament show just how far behind Missouri is on questions testing real knowledge as opposed to the basic crap they ask most of the time here. And there is no excuse to not have teams learn more and do better just because our state is reactionary. We need to get in real tournaments and teams like NKC who aren't just content to learn the same few clues over and over again and who go and decide to immerse themselves in deeper material that will never come up in regular season play.

A related point - this shows how the questions found so often in Missouri unnecessarily balance out the field. I think our results show how many miles ahead of anyone in Missouri we are in terms of actually knowing a lot. However, we can almost lose to Lee's Summit North on conference questions. And we can almost lose to Liberty at districts (granted, I thought they would do a little better, but even so I don't think there's any real argument that they truly know as much as us). If the questions always tested depth, I think everything would improve about Missouri.

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Post by redliberte »

chuq answered more tossups, powers and 10 pt-ers together, than anybody else at the tourey.
granted, I thought they would do a little better
ughh, so did i. all i'm saying is this: some of us came to play, and some of us didn't.

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Post by Charlie Dees »

But I gotta give Dallas his props, because he had a massively harder schedule than me (defeating Whitman, Gonzaga twice, and being on the only team in the tournament that actually beat Maggie Walker, along with losing to State College twice, all in the prelims). And I played in a sort of all-star game where we were on the same team, and he's definitely great. What's really amazing about this tournament is how many great junior and sophomore-based teams there were.

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Post by East Buc & UMR »

ughh, so did i. all i'm saying is this: some of us came to play, and some of us didn't.
Nothing like calling teammates out on an internet message board. Spend to much time with Chuq this weekend???

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Post by Charlie Dees »

Well, she's right. Look at the stats.

Unfortunately it was like I was busy every time Liberty wasn't, and we were stuck in a hotel 2 miles away because we registered like a week before the tournament.

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